The race to succeed retiring Greens MP Tamara Smith is beginning to take shape, but the Nationals are yet to find a starter.

The party was forced to postpone yesterday’s scheduled Ballina pre-selection after failing to attract a single nomination by Friday’s deadline.

Party officials confirmed to Ballina News Daily that no nominations were received before applications closed.

The setback is likely to strengthen perceptions the Greens remain favourites to retain Ballina, despite Ms Smith’s retirement.

The Greens enter the contest with the advantage of incumbency and an active pre-selection battle between two confirmed high-profile contenders.

Comedian and media personality Mandy Nolan and Byron Shire Mayor Sarah Ndiaye are expected to contest the Greens nomination, with a decision anticipated within the next month.

However, the Greens’ chances may also depend on Labor selecting a solid candidate capable of directing preferences their way.

The Labor Party has yet to begin its pre-selection process, with party officials indicating that contest is expected to take place in July.

Despite the Nationals’ slow start, the party remains confident of finding a strong candidate to contest the March 2027 state election.

Ballina Deputy Mayor Damien Loone, who has long been regarded as one of the party’s strongest potential candidates, confirmed he did not lodge a nomination.

Cr Loone said he had not ruled out entering the race if nominations reopened, but remained undecided.

He said a number of personal factors were influencing his thinking.

Cr Loone also said he was enjoying his current role as a first-term councillor and deputy mayor.

He said he felt privileged to represent the community in local government and was still considering whether a move into state politics was the right path.

The Nationals held Ballina continuously from 1988 until the Greens won the seat in 2015.

The absence of any nominations will inevitably fuel speculation about the Nationals’ prospects in the electorate.

It also reflects the party’s difficulty in identifying an obvious high-profile contender.

The Nationals’ challenge comes amid ongoing speculation Ballina Shire Mayor Sharon Cadwallader could contest the seat as an independent.

Cr Cadwallader has not announced any intention to run and has consistently maintained her focus remains on serving as mayor.

However, she continues to be mentioned in political circles as a potential contender following Ms Smith’s retirement announcement.

Some observers believe the prospect of a Cadwallader candidacy may be causing some potential Nationals hopefuls to think carefully before committing to the race.

At the same time, any independent campaign would likely face significant challenges without the presence of a strong National Party candidate.

Under NSW’s optional preferential voting system, a competitive Nationals candidate could potentially direct preferences to an independent.

That could create a pathway to victory that may not otherwise exist.

That dynamic means the Nationals’ eventual candidate selection could prove just as important as the party’s own electoral prospects in determining who succeeds Ms Smith in 2027.

Unless the Nationals can convince a strong candidate to enter the race, the battle to replace Ms Smith may ultimately be shaped as much by the Greens Party pre-selection contest as by the election campaign itself.

Main image – the possible contenders (L to R); Sharon Cadwallader, Damian Loone, Mandy Nolan and Sarah Ndiaye