We asked party insiders to go “off the record” and tell us what they really think.
Last week, Ballina homeowners opened their mailboxes to find a dark, dramatic flyer authorised by ALP headquarters in Sussex Street, Sydney. The image showed a smiling Nationals candidate Kimberly Hone standing behind an awkward-looking Peter Dutton, under the warning: “If you support the Nationals’ Kimberly Hone, you’ll get Dutton.”
It was a pointed intervention in what has so far been a relatively mild-mannered local campaign — and a sign that Labor knows if it’s in for a fight, the key opponent is not the one many in the media expect.
Despite growing buzz around Greens candidate Mandy Nolan and some favourable national media coverage of her campaign, both Labor and Coalition insiders say that if anyone is threatening Justine Elliot’s long-held grip on the seat, it’s Kimberly Hone.
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The bookies agree: Elliot remains the firm favourite, with the others trailing.
Still, Richmond has had the odd surprise before — and certainly no shortage of colourful contests.
A Seat With Political Pedigree
One of the original Federation seats, Richmond was long a conservative stronghold. It was represented for decades by the Anthony family — Larry Sr. from 1937, followed in 1957 by Doug, who went on to serve as Deputy Prime Minister.
Labor finally wrestled the seat away in 1990, with Bob Hawke as Prime Minister and Neville Newell becoming the first ALP MP for Richmond. Interestingly, preferences from the Greens’ forerunner — the Nuclear Disarmament Party — played a part.
Another Anthony — Larry Jr. — won it back in the 1996 Howard landslide, making the Anthonys the only three-generation dynasty in Australian federal politics.
That grip was broken again in 2004, when Justine Elliot defeated Anthony the 3rd during Mark Latham’s ill-fated bid for the prime ministership. While that campaign is mostly remembered for “the handshake” with John Howard, it also marked the first federal election after the collapse of the Australian Democrats — a moment that allowed the Greens to emerge as a serious national force on the so-called “progressive” flank. Their preferences played a critical role in helping Labor flip Richmond a second time — and hold it since.
The former police officer has turned the seat into a personal stronghold, winning six consecutive terms. If re-elected and she serves a full term, Elliot will come close to rivaling Doug Anthony’s record as the longest-serving MP for Richmond.
The Contenders
This election marks the second time both Mandy Nolan and Kimberly Hone have contested the race against Elliot.
Nolan came close in 2022. Now, her campaign is aiming to take the next step, buoyed by what they see as a rising tide of support in the region.
Nolan says the Greens need just 3,500 more votes to unseat Labor and she’s targeting the 8,500 new and first-time voters in the electorate. “We pulled number one on the ballot,” she told The Nightly. “It just felt like things were aligning for us.”
The Greens have certainly intensified their campaign — doubling their volunteer base and placing around 2,000 corflutes on the front lawns of homes across the electorate. In Byron and Ballina, their party machine is strong. At the state level, third-term Greens MP Tamara Smith has clearly overtaken Labor, and the party holds sway on both Ballina and Byron Shire Councils.
But federal races are a different beast, and Labor veterans aren’t too concerned.
“Tell her she’s dreaming,” one Labor booth worker said to me outside the Ballina pre-poll on a day when Green’s volunteers on the ground seemed to outnumber nearly everyone else. “Richmond’s always been a Labor–Nationals contest. For Mandy to win? That’s a pretty steep hill.”
The Hone Play
While the Greens may be louder on the ground and on the ABC, Nationals candidate Kimberly Hone has been quietly building her campaign — and has sharpened her message since her 2022 debut.
Her base is in Tweed — home to 60% of the electorate — and the successful business coach has been focusing on local issues, most notably the closure of Mt Warning to climbers, a flashpoint that resonated with voters who also leaned heavily against the Voice referendum.
Here at the Ballina end of the electorate, she’s the only candidate to open a campaign office on River Street. She’s also pitched some distinctly local promises — like securing funding for a major upgrade at the Maritime and Naval Museum, and matching Justine Elliot’s $3m pledge to fund the install of security cameras in the Ballina and Lennox Head CBDs.
At the all-important northern end of Richmond, Hone’s profile has grown steadily since becoming the only new councillor elected to Tweed Shire last year. Nationals strategists are hopeful she’ll consolidate the conservative vote, particularly now that there’s no Liberal Democrat candidate on the ballot — a factor they believe caused confusion last time.
“She’s running a very solid campaign,” said one long-time Nationals supporter handing out how-to-votes. “But the National brand seems to struggle a bit with younger, city types. And let’s be honest — Dutton’s made a few bad calls. As for David Littleproud? Most people don’t even know who he is. It’s not like back in the days of Doug Anthony, or for that matter Tim Fischer, or even Barnaby. At least you knew what you were getting with them.”
A Three-Way Contest
There’s something unique about Richmond’s 2025 ballot: three high-profile, intelligent, charismatic — and yes (dare we note it), all blonde — women competing in a three-way race for the second election in a row. It’s a modern twist in an electorate that’s seen dynasties rise and fall.
If Mandy Nolan were to win, it would be historic — the first time the Greens had taken a regional seat from Labor at a federal level. It would send a loud message about shifting progressive allegiances in regional Australia. But that outcome remains unlikely.
More probable is that Hone, the youngest of the three, continues to build her profile, positioning herself for a stronger run next time — especially if this proves to be Elliot’s final term.
Still, there’s enormous power in incumbency, and Elliot’s name recognition and track record remain formidable. As one Labor strategist put it: “The Greens can put up a hell of a campaign, but Richmond’s a seat you hold on to with deep roots — not just good optics.”
With polling day near, it’s clear the battle for Richmond is shaping up to be one of the more intriguing — if not exactly nail-biting — contests of 2025.
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