One Nation eyes Ballina as three more starters emerge
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The race to replace retiring Greens MP Tamara Smith is rapidly becoming one of the most closely watched contests of the 2027 NSW election.
A growing One Nation movement, a competitive Greens pre-selection contest and a potential independent push spanning Ballina and Byron are all reshaping the contest.
Long-time political campaigner Kevin Loughrey has confirmed he’s considering seeking One Nation endorsement to contest the seat.
The former Army officer said a local One Nation branch was being established and claimed the party already had about 350 members across the electorate.
He said he hoped several candidates would ultimately seek the party’s endorsement.
“I want the best person running,” Mr Loughrey said.
The party did not field a candidate at the 2023 NSW election, however it has shown signs of growing support locally.
At the 2025 federal election, One Nation candidate Ian Mye secured 5.4 per cent of the primary vote across the electorate of Richmond.
Mr Loughrey also demonstrated support for an alternative political voice at the last state election, securing 7.8 per cent of the primary vote as an independent candidate.
He believes cost-of-living pressures, rising electricity prices and housing affordability concerns are helping drive growing interest in One Nation.
Mr Loughrey recently rejoined One Nation after stepping away from Australians for Better Government, a political reform movement he helped establish.
He said he left the organisation following a disagreements with fellow founders over his proposal to increase Australia’s voting age.
Mr Loughrey attracted national attention last year after arguing the voting age should be raised to 25, saying major life experience should be a prerequisite for voting.
Greens pre-selection becomes three-way contest
Meanwhile, the Greens pre-selection battle is taking shape, with three candidates now seeking endorsement.
Ballina Shire Councillor Kiri Dicker has formally entered the race alongside former federal candidate Mandy Nolan and Byron Shire Mayor Sarah Ndiaye.
Cr Dicker is the only Ballina-based contender among the three candidates and has pitched herself as the candidate most focused on issues affecting Ballina Shire.
While her rivals have largely kept their powder dry as required under party rules, Cr Dicker used the Greens-friendly Byron Bay Echo to publicly set out her vision for the electorate.
She described the health of the Richmond River as “the biggest issue facing Ballina” and argued she knew how to “grow the Greens vote in Ballina”.
Cr Dicker highlighted social justice, housing affordability and environmental protection as key campaign priorities.
Several Greens members have told Ballina News Daily they believe Ms Nolan entered the contest as the preferred candidate of the party hierarchy which initially expected little opposition.
Although Cr Dicker is not widely viewed as a favourite to win the pre-selection against the two higher-profile Byron contenders, her candidacy could significantly influence the outcome.
Her entry creates a third voting bloc in what had been shaping as a head-to-head battle between Ms Nolan and Cr Ndiaye.
Party insiders believe support drawn from members who might otherwise have backed Ms Nolan could ultimately benefit Cr Ndiaye in what is expected to be a closely fought vote.
Cr Dicker’s own electoral record suggests she cannot be discounted entirely.
At the 2024 Ballina mayoral election she secured 21.4 per cent of the vote against eventual winner Sharon Cadwallader’s 49.5 per cent.
Independent wildcard emerging
Another name emerging in the contest is Byron Shire Councillor David Warth, who has confirmed he intends to nominate as an independent candidate.
His candidacy is likely to fuel further speculation about whether Ballina Shire Mayor Sharon Cadwallader will also enter the race.
While no formal arrangement has been discussed publicly, independent campaigns by Cr Warth in Byron Shire and Cr Cadwallader in Ballina Shire could prove mutually beneficial.
Both enjoy strong local profiles within their respective council areas and have established volunteer, supporter and community networks that could help build momentum across the electorate.
Such a scenario could give the two independents a stronger platform than is typically available to non-party candidates and help them compete more effectively against the major parties.
Neither Cr Warth nor Cr Cadwallader has announced any joint campaign plans.
However, both have confirmed they know each other well and hold each other in high regard.
Cr Cadwallader has repeatedly maintained her focus remains on serving as mayor.
However, she continues to be widely discussed as a potential independent candidate following Ms Smith’s retirement announcement.
Nationals and Labor yet to show their hand
The Nationals’ candidate search may also be nearing a conclusion.
Ballina News Daily understands the party has now secured at least one prospective candidate and is expected to reconvene its postponed pre-selection process in coming weeks.
The party’s original pre-selection last Sunday was abandoned after no nominations were received by the deadline.
Meanwhile, Labor remains the great unknown in the contest.
Labor sources have suggested the party is taking a cautious approach and may be waiting to see who emerges from rival pre-selection battles before settling on a candidate of its own.
NSW Labor headquarters declined to comment when contacted by Ballina News Daily.
However, party officials have previously indicated state election pre-selections across NSW are expected to commence in July.
With the Greens, Nationals, One Nation and independents all manoeuvring for position — and Labor yet to show its hand — the race for Ballina is already shaping as one of the most interesting electoral contests ahead of next year’s poll.
